Lies or ignorance
Hard to believe the smartest man in the world was ignorant of the predicted effects that have come true.
CHATGPT
Premiums Would Rise Instead of Fall
Prediction:
Requiring broader coverage (essential benefits, no pre-existing condition exclusions, community rating, etc.) would increase average premiums—especially for younger or healthier people.
Who predicted this:
Congressional Budget Office (CBO) warned that premiums in the individual market might increase for some groups.
Conservative think tanks (e.g., Heritage Foundation, American Enterprise Institute) said the new mandates would push up costs.
Result:
Premiums did rise for many individual-market buyers, though subsidies offset much of it for low-income enrollees. Employer-sponsored plans saw slower long-term growth but still rising costs.
Loss of Existing Plans or Doctors
Prediction:
Obama’s “If you like your plan, you can keep it” promise was unlikely to hold true because:
The law required plans to meet new federal benefit standards.
Insurers would cancel noncompliant policies.
Who predicted this:
Insurance industry analysts (AHIP).
CBO and FactCheck.org noted this likelihood in 2009–2010.
Result:
Millions of individual plans were indeed canceled in 2013–2014 when new ACA standards took effect, prompting the administration’s later apology and “grandfather” rule adjustments.
Obama’s “costs will fall” message was politically powerful but economically unrealistic.
Analysts across the spectrum predicted it wouldn’t happen — and by and large, that prediction was borne out: